Predictions 2010

So I just want to apologize for being so long between emails.  If you can’t tell, I’ve been rather busy lately.  But there are just too many things brewing in my head right now to not take the time to send out one of these emails I know you all love.  So seeing as it’s nearly time for the Golden Globes (and thus my favorite time of year: award show season) I thought I’d give my annual predictions and judgments on the movies of 2009.  So here we go:

Writing –
This is an odd category this year.  There is no front runner for best writing.  I think that Up in the Air might take this or perhaps Inglorious Basterds (just to throw Tarantino a bone).  I also think that (500) Days of Summer should be in there, but I’m not sure it will be.  I won’t count out Nick Hornby for An Education as well, Hollywood loves to show it’s appreciation for novelists by giving them Oscars whenever possible (see John Irving).  Also, Disney’s Up was a fabulously written movie that deserves some credit here, but I’m thinking Up in the Air is going to take it.

Director –
I would put my money on James Cameron for Avatar or Jason Reitman for Up in the Air.  Basically, James Cameron just dedicated four years to Avatar and it’s made $450 million domestically, but he won a best director oscar for Titanic many years ago.  I could see the academy welcoming Jason Reitman for the three great movies he has made (Thank You for Smoking, Juno and now, Up in the Air) by giving him a little golden statue.  My long shot guess would be Tarantino as he has never won a directing statue (and maybe should have for Pulp Fiction).  But if he wins best screenplay he won’t win best director.

Animated Feature –
Without a doubt this will be UP.  If you haven’t seen it, rent it.

Supporting Actor –
I could see this going to Christopher Plummer for The Last Station as he has never won an Oscar.  I could also see Stanley Tucci winning this for The Lovely Bones (which I have not seen, but hear he’s wonderful in).

Supporting Actress –
Now here’s a freaking category.  There are  AMAZING performances in this category so really it’s anyone’s game.  Of course, this is Hollywood and it’s never anyone’s game.  I think Mo’nique is going to take home the statue for Precious.  She’s a comedian that took on this very very dark, very awful person and made her a person.  You certainly don’t like her in the movie, but she’s a person and in a weird, f-ed up way you understand her, even if you know she’s horrible.  However, the ladies of Up in the Air were both amazing Vera Farmiga as Clooney’s love interest and Anna Kendrick as his younger protege completed the emotional texture of the movie.  They were great.  I don’t think Penelope Cruz will win for Nine, though she is great in it.  But I think Julieanne Moore could upset for A Simple Man, she’s never won an Oscar and is due up for one.

Best Actor –
I think this is going to be Jeff Bridges year.  He is amazing in Crazy Heart (go see it if you haven’t already).  I also think Clooney might get this one for Up in the Air. The whole movie rode on his shoulders and he doesn’t have a Best Actor oscar (just best supporting) so I could see it going to him.  Also, I never discount the Academy’s love of Daniel Day-Lewis.  He’s great in Nine, but I still think we’re going to see a Clooney/Bridges showdown.

Best Actress –
I’m going with a pretty much lock on Gabourey Sidibe for Precious.  She was absolutely freaking amazing in that movie and it was a great movie (not to sad for the subject matter it dealt with) pretty much thanks to her and her alone.  However, I could see a Sandra Bullock upset for The Blind Side (as this might be her one shot at Oscar Glory) and I could see a Meryl Streep upset for Julie and Julia (remember she hasn’t won an Oscar in a very very long time, though she is nominated for pretty much every role she plays…this will be number 16, I think).  I think Marion Cotillard will be nominated for Nine, as she was wonderful, but I don’t think she’ll win (she just won two years ago) and I think that Emily Blunt may be nominated for The Young Victoria, just to show that she’s a great actress to watch out for (this happened with Amy Adams when she was nominated for Junebug a few years ago).  The other big upset I could see comes from Carey Mulligan in An Education.  She was simply fantastic in that movie and played a young girl with a sense of savvy who was too naive to see how naive she was.  So good.

Best Picture –
This one is going to be a race.  There are 10 different movies that will be nominated this year (as a way for the Academy to appeal to a larger viewing audience), so the boat is going to rock a bit.  Now, personally I’m happy about this because (500) Days of Summer, which normally wouldn’t have had an eyelash batted its way, has a fighting chance for a nomination, if not the big prize.  I’ll say that it is my favorite movie of the year.  As for winners, however, I think Avatar has a fighting chance, as it is a huge blockbuster and basically just changed hollywood for good (again James Cameron? once wasn’t enough).  However, I think the winner is going to be one of the smaller movies that no one expects.  Crazy Heart could take it, Precious is definitely a front-runner, and The Hurt Locker seems to be gaining momentum in this race.  I also think that Up in the Air might be the actual front-runner.  It’s a great movie, but it’s also very timely (i.e. it wouldn’t work at any other time in any other economic environment).  I think this one will end up winning.

Other things to look out for:  Ryan Bingham will win for best song from Crazy Heart.  Best Foreign I’m voting for Pedro Almodovar’s Broken Embraces.  And lastly, what the fuck is going to happen with 10 Best Picture nominees?

Peace, Love, and a Man Named Oscar,
Julia